The Road to Q-Day

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  • 2026-03-30
    Estimates for breaking ECC: ~10K physical qubits — Cain et al., 'Shor's algorithm is possible with as few as 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits', arXiv:2603.28627
  • 2025-10-30
    Google defaults PQC hybridization across internal services and Chrome — Google Cloud Blog, 'PQC in plaintext: helping customers prepare for a quantum-safe future'
  • 2025-10-28
    Cloudflare expands PQC TLS to broader internet traffic at scale — Cloudflare Blog, 'State of the post-quantum Internet in 2025'
  • 2025-10-22
    Multiple independent quantum advantage claims — Google Quantum AI, 'Quantum Echoes' (Willow), Nature
  • 2025-06-12
    99.999% fidelity in single qubit quantum operations — Smith et al., 'Single-qubit gates with errors at the 10⁻⁷ level', Phys. Rev. Lett.
  • 2025-03-11
    NIST selected HQC as a fifth PQC algorithm — NIST PQC, HQC selection announcement
  • 2024-11-12
    NIST plans to deprecate classical algos by ~2030 — NIST IR 8547 ipd, 'Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards'
  • 2024-09-09
    Microsoft integrates PQC (Kyber) into Windows — Microsoft Security Blog, 'Microsoft's quantum-resistant cryptography is here'
  • 2024-08-21
    IETF standardizes hybrid PQC key exchange for TLS (Kyber + classical) — IETF, draft-kwiatkowski-tls-ecdhe-mlkem
  • 2024-08-13
    NIST finalized the first three PQC standards — NIST FIPS 203/204/205
  • 2024-07-11
    99.99% fidelity in single qubit quantum operations — Oxford Ionics press release, 'Breaks Global Quantum Performance Records'
  • 2024-02-13
    New architecture-aware Shor estimates (~100k-300k physical qubits) — Chevignard, Fouque & Schrottenloher, IACR ePrint 2024/222
  • 2023-09-19
    Signal deploys PQXDH (post-quantum X3DH) for quantum-resistant messaging — Signal Foundation Blog, 'Quantum Resistance and the Signal Protocol'
  • 2023-08-10
    Google and Apple roll out PQC across their products — Google Security Blog, 'Protecting Chrome Traffic with Hybrid Kyber KEM'
  • 2023-05-09
    99.99% single qubit fidelity achieved — Quantinuum press release, 'System Model H2 launch'
  • 2023-01-25
    AWS adds PQC support (Kyber) in TLS via AWS KMS and s2n — AWS Security Blog, 'Post-quantum TLS in AWS KMS'
  • 2022-09-30
    Cloudflare enables hybrid Kyber + X25519 TLS by default for some connections — Cloudflare Blog, 'Defending against future threats: Cloudflare goes post-quantum'
  • 2022-09-07
    NSA adopts CNSA 2.0: first quantum-resistant cryptographic standard — NSA Cybersecurity Advisory, 'Announcing CNSA 2.0'
  • 2022-07-05
    NIST announces the first PQC algorithms — NIST PQC, first algorithm selection announcement
  • 2022-05-04
    White House issues National Security Memorandum-10 — White House, National Security Memorandum-10
  • 2021-11-16
    Quantum processors pass 100-qubits — IBM Research Blog, '127-qubit Eagle processor'
  • 2020-10-29
    99.9% fidelity in single qubit quantum operations — Honeywell Quantum Solutions, System Model H1 launch
  • 2020-07-22
    NIST selects 7 finalists and 8 alternates for Round 3 — NIST CSRC, PQC Round 3 announcement
  • 2019-10-23
    First quantum supremacy claim by Google — Arute et al., Nature 574, 505
  • 2019-06-20
    Cloudflare deploys experimental PQC first time — Cloudflare Blog, 'Towards Post-Quantum Cryptography in TLS'
  • 2019-05-23
    Gidney & Ekera breakthrough (~20M to ~1M qubits for Shor) — Gidney & Ekerå, arXiv:1905.09749
  • 2017-12-21
    NIST announces 69 algorithms advancing to Round 1 of the PQC competition — NIST CSRC, PQC Round 1 announcement
  • 2016-07-07
    Google experiments with hybrid PQC (NewHope) in Chrome TLS connections — Google Online Security Blog, 'Experimenting with Post-Quantum Cryptography'
  • 2016-05-04
    First public quantum computers online (IBM) — IBM Research Blog, 'IBM Quantum Experience'
  • 2016-04-28
    NIST publishes report on PQC — NISTIR 8105, 'Report on Post-Quantum Cryptography'
  • 2012-09-18
    Early estimates for Shor (~10-20 million qubits) — Fowler, Mariantoni, Martinis & Cleland, Phys. Rev. A 86, 032324
  • 1998-04-13
    First experimental qubits demonstrated — Chuang, Gershenfeld & Kubinec, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 3408
  • 1994-11-20
    Shor's algorithm breaking RSA discovered — Shor, 'Algorithms for Quantum Computation: Discrete Logarithms and Factoring', FOCS
  • 1981-05-06
    Richard Feynman proposes quantum computers — Feynman, 'Simulating Physics with Computers', Int. J. Theor. Phys. 21, 467