The Road to Q-Day

ecdsa.fail launches: community beats Google's best Shor circuit by ~50%

ecdsa.fail challenge leaderboard, https://www.ecdsa.fail

Estimates for breaking ECC: ~10K physical qubits

Cain et al., 'Shor's algorithm is possible with as few as 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits', arXiv:2603.28627

Google defaults PQC hybridization across internal services and Chrome

Google Cloud Blog, 'PQC in plaintext: helping customers prepare for a quantum-safe future'

Cloudflare expands PQC TLS to broader internet traffic at scale

Cloudflare Blog, 'State of the post-quantum Internet in 2025'

Multiple independent quantum advantage claims

Google Quantum AI, 'Quantum Echoes' (Willow), Nature

99.999% fidelity in single qubit quantum operations

Smith et al., 'Single-qubit gates with errors at the 10⁻⁷ level', Phys. Rev. Lett.

NIST selected HQC as a fifth PQC algorithm

NIST PQC, HQC selection announcement

NIST plans to deprecate classical algos by ~2030

NIST IR 8547 ipd, 'Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards'

Microsoft integrates PQC (Kyber) into Windows

Microsoft Security Blog, 'Microsoft's quantum-resistant cryptography is here'

IETF standardizes hybrid PQC key exchange for TLS (Kyber + classical)

IETF, draft-kwiatkowski-tls-ecdhe-mlkem

NIST finalized the first three PQC standards

NIST FIPS 203/204/205

99.99% fidelity in single qubit quantum operations

Oxford Ionics press release, 'Breaks Global Quantum Performance Records'

New architecture-aware Shor estimates (~100k-300k physical qubits)

Chevignard, Fouque & Schrottenloher, IACR ePrint 2024/222

Signal deploys PQXDH (post-quantum X3DH) for quantum-resistant messaging

Signal Foundation Blog, 'Quantum Resistance and the Signal Protocol'

Google and Apple roll out PQC across their products

Google Security Blog, 'Protecting Chrome Traffic with Hybrid Kyber KEM'

99.99% single qubit fidelity achieved

Quantinuum press release, 'System Model H2 launch'

AWS adds PQC support (Kyber) in TLS via AWS KMS and s2n

AWS Security Blog, 'Post-quantum TLS in AWS KMS'

Cloudflare enables hybrid Kyber + X25519 TLS by default for some connections

Cloudflare Blog, 'Defending against future threats: Cloudflare goes post-quantum'

NSA adopts CNSA 2.0: first quantum-resistant cryptographic standard

NSA Cybersecurity Advisory, 'Announcing CNSA 2.0'

NIST announces the first PQC algorithms

NIST PQC, first algorithm selection announcement

White House issues National Security Memorandum-10

White House, National Security Memorandum-10

Quantum processors pass 100-qubits

IBM Research Blog, '127-qubit Eagle processor'

99.9% fidelity in single qubit quantum operations

Honeywell Quantum Solutions, System Model H1 launch

NIST selects 7 finalists and 8 alternates for Round 3

NIST CSRC, PQC Round 3 announcement

First quantum supremacy claim by Google

Arute et al., Nature 574, 505

Cloudflare deploys experimental PQC first time

Cloudflare Blog, 'Towards Post-Quantum Cryptography in TLS'

Gidney & Ekera breakthrough (~20M to ~1M qubits for Shor)

Gidney & Ekerå, arXiv:1905.09749

NIST announces 69 algorithms advancing to Round 1 of the PQC competition

NIST CSRC, PQC Round 1 announcement

Google experiments with hybrid PQC (NewHope) in Chrome TLS connections

Google Online Security Blog, 'Experimenting with Post-Quantum Cryptography'

First public quantum computers online (IBM)

IBM Research Blog, 'IBM Quantum Experience'

NIST publishes report on PQC

NISTIR 8105, 'Report on Post-Quantum Cryptography'

Early estimates for Shor (~10-20 million qubits)

Fowler, Mariantoni, Martinis & Cleland, Phys. Rev. A 86, 032324

First experimental qubits demonstrated

Chuang, Gershenfeld & Kubinec, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 3408

Shor's algorithm breaking RSA discovered

Shor, 'Algorithms for Quantum Computation: Discrete Logarithms and Factoring', FOCS

Richard Feynman proposes quantum computers

Feynman, 'Simulating Physics with Computers', Int. J. Theor. Phys. 21, 467